Retail payrolls grew in September 2016, but the sector’s average hourly pay went the other way. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported roughly 22,000 additional retail jobs while its earnings table showed $17.87 an hour, down from $17.90 in August. For workers judging a job offer, the national pay headline was not the whole story. [jobs2016]
Across private nonfarm payrolls, average hourly earnings rose six cents to $25.79. Retail’s figures are averages across employees, not evidence that each existing worker received a pay cut. Nor does the release explain the change through bargaining power, staffing mix or company policy. More retail positions and a lower sector average can be reported together without inventing a cause. [jobs2016]
The Bureau of Economic Analysis supplied another reason to look beneath a reassuring total. Its September 30 release said August personal-income growth primarily reflected employee compensation, income receipts on assets and government social benefits. Personal income was therefore not simply a measure of wages earned at work. Those additional sources can support households, but this aggregate does not identify which retail workers received them. [income2016]
Our reading is practical: compare the relevant pay category and the actual offer, rather than treating national income growth as a substitute for wage evidence. A rising average elsewhere does not settle whether a retail job pays enough for a particular household. This October 9 retrospective draws on the October 7 jobs release and September 30 income release, not a Sunday announcement, and retains their original estimates, including BEA’s now-superseded vintage. [jobs2016][income2016]
Source documents
- Personal Income and Outlays, August 2016https://www.bea.gov/news/2016/personal-income-and-outlays-august-2016
- Employment Situation, September 2016https://www.bls.gov/news.release/archives/empsit_10072016.htm