Workers reading January's industrial-production headline could encounter a decline that did not describe their industry. The Federal Reserve's February 15, 2017 release reported a seasonally adjusted monthly fall of 0.3 percent in total industrial output. Manufacturing nevertheless rose 0.2 percent and mining rose 2.8 percent. These output measures did not establish changes in jobs, wages or layoffs. [g17_20170215]
Electricity and gas utilities moved in the opposite direction, with output falling 5.7 percent. The Board attributed that decline largely to unusually warm weather reducing heating demand. That explanation matters because lower heating-related output is a different phenomenon from a decline across factories. It remains the Board's explanation, not a separate independent finding about weather causality. [g17_20170215]
Even manufacturing was divided. Motor vehicles and parts output fell 2.9 percent in January, while the rest of manufacturing increased 0.5 percent. A worker in the vehicle supply chain and one elsewhere in manufacturing therefore faced different sector readings, although neither figure determines an individual workplace's staffing or a particular household's income. [g17_20170215]
The January 18 release had initially put December's overall output gain at 0.8 percent and its utilities gain at 6.6 percent, largely linking the latter to more normal temperatures after a warm November. The February release revised December's total gain to 0.6 percent. Reading both vintages preserves that revision and the weather-sensitive component without manufacturing an employment story from an output series. [g17_20170215][g17_20170118]
Source documents
- Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17, February 15, 2017https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/20170215/default.htm
- Industrial Production and Capacity Utilization - G.17, January 18, 2017https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/g17/20170118/default.htm