For factory workers, a larger national order total was not the same as a longer stretch of secure work. The Census Bureau's March 6, 2017 report put January manufacturing new orders at $470.2 billion, up 1.2 percent. Yet the end-of-month backlog of durable-goods orders fell 0.4 percent to $1,114.1 billion. Neither movement establishes what happened to anyone's job. [jan17prel]

The distinction concerns work arriving versus work remaining. New orders are measured net of cancellations; the durable backlog records unfilled orders at month-end. Both order measures exclude semiconductors. These are seasonally adjusted dollar values without an inflation adjustment, not hours of work or headcounts. A smaller aggregate backlog does not reveal whether cancellations caused its decline. [jan17prel]

The earlier release also argues against turning a headline into reassurance. On February 3, Census reported December shipment growth of 2.2 percent; the March report revised it to 2.5 percent. January shipments then rose 0.2 percent. These are successive estimates from one Census program, not independent confirmation of improving employment prospects. The original December level is not the latest comparison base. [jan17prel][dec16prel]

Our worker-focused question is therefore specific: what evidence connects incoming business to the duration and reliability of work at a particular plant? Workers would need workplace information on scheduled hours and staffing commitments, not a promise inferred from national bookings. The survey cannot supply sampling confidence intervals because it is not a probability sample. Its reported increase is useful context, but it cannot settle that local security question. [jan17prel]

Source documents

  1. Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories and Orders, January 2017https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/historical_data/pressreleases/prel/2017/jan17prel.pdf
  2. Manufacturers Shipments, Inventories and Orders, December 2016https://www.census.gov/manufacturing/m3/historical_data/pressreleases/prel/2016/dec16prel.pdf